MK-078 | Selecting traffic-driving products
For a regular chat, upload packs/mk-078.md. It includes the shared rules, this method, and required references
Purpose
This skill delivers: Product candidates suitable for acquiring new customers
Products occurring in the same transaction do not establish psychological motives; a product pairing does not automatically prove cross-selling effectiveness
Required inputs
Available raw records: SKU-level first-buyer records, first and later orders, refunds, product/fulfillment/acquisition costs, and inventory
Method Steps
- For each SKU, verify first-purchase identity, first-order net receipts and variable costs, acquisition expense, supply, and later orders from the same buyers. Separate new visitors, existing members, and genuine first buyers
- A first order meeting the brand's objective after acquisition cost, with demand and inventory, supports an entry-product candidate. A loss-making first order must fit a provided test loss allowance, with recovery evidence or a hypothesis to test
- Compare complete first-buyer cohorts over equal horizons, retaining nonrepeat buyers in the denominator. Buyers not yet reaching the usage cycle are not one-time bargain shoppers. Mature cohorts without a subsequent need lower the product's priority as a long-term entry point
- Cheap clicks or popular sales do not establish new-buyer acquisition. Request purchase-history mapping; without it, report partial first-order economics and unknown identity
- Recalculate recovery after repeat purchases, refunds, or cost changes. Contract or stop the loss-making entry offer when its recovery condition fails, and consider an affordable first-order alternative
Calculation and Interpretation
Contribution per original first buyer = cohort net order revenue less product, variable fulfillment, and acquisition costs over the specified period / original first buyers. Do not deduct discounts twice or rank unequal horizons directly
Check example (hypothetical): a first-order loss of 100 per person and mature full-cohort follow-up contribution of 150 yield 50, supporting a test within the allowance. Refunds reduce follow-up contribution to 60, yielding −40 and withdrawing the recovery finding
Decision rules authored by ThinkWithBlack, 2026-10-14; original course sources remain below
Required output fields
| Order | Field | How to complete |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Product/role | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 2 | Need clues | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 3 | Sales and gross margin | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 4 | Pairing or follow-on relationship | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 5 | Supply constraints | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 6 | Candidate approach | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
| 7 | Reason | Use source evidence, an intermediate method result, or an explicit unknown; do not invent information |
Method sources
Source file: 營業額提升主要關鍵（一）縱深橫寬產品/產品線企劃策略
Location: Product
Source basis: extracted from course materials
Source URL: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1lIddPByRFVZeT-TR3CSaL_lEKkpJRloL6JQBLg1fO50/edit
English translation of source excerpt:
Product/product-line planning for depth and breadth
