MK-093 | Organizing high- and low-season pacing
For a regular chat, upload packs/mk-093.md. It includes the shared rules, this method, and required references
Purpose
This skill delivers: Seasonality hypotheses grounded in historical data
Historical seasonality can inform planning but does not guarantee recurrence; do not create paid schedules or publish without user approval
When a seasonal ecommerce operator asks whether searches, auction competition, and conversions rise together, whether to cut budgets as end-of-season costs increase, and how to plan over the long term, use this method to examine seasonal hypotheses, events, and comparability and deliver an annual phase table. Check platform concepts against current official documentation. Treat general assumptions as hypotheses and provide method guidance without requiring account data. If the user separately requests diagnosis of an actual account, confirm the campaign type, valid outcomes, mature reporting period, and change history before handing off to the relevant method. Define brand queries separately from new-versus-existing customer identity, and platform CPA separately from new-customer CAC
Required inputs
Available raw records: dated sales and orders by product/channel, opening time, prices/promotions, stockouts, events, and advertising
Method Steps
- Gather dates, revenue, orders, opening days/hours, prices/promotions, stockouts, events, and advertising for matching products/channels. Align moving holidays to the same event stage
- Repeated directional demand changes across comparable cycles support a seasonality candidate. A single promotion or closure in one year is initially an event or supply explanation
- Consistent demand signals after considering operating time and available products support advance inventory, production, or calendar allocation. A peak without stock or capacity calls for supply preparation before added spend
- Without comparable history, deliver known event dates and demand scenarios rather than declaring a certain peak month. Request the matching-period record that distinguishes seasonality from an event
- Withdraw the seasonal label when closure, stock, or price explains the change. If the direction persists but magnitude changes, update quantity and budget scenarios rather than copying last year's percentages
Calculation and Interpretation
Report total revenue, comparable operating time, and orders/revenue per operating unit together. Normalization does not remove every difference; assess product, price, channel, and event comparability from records
Check example (hypothetical): monthly revenue falls from 300,000 to 150,000. Opening days also fall from 30 to 15, leaving 10,000 per day. Withdraw “demand halved” and plan around available operating capacity
Decision rules authored by ThinkWithBlack, 2026-10-14; original course sources remain below
Required output fields
| Order | Field | How to complete |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comparison periods, product and channel | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 2 | Raw revenue and orders | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 3 | Effective operating time | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 4 | Metric per unit of operating time | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 5 | Promotions, stockouts, price and other events | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 6 | Comparability | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 7 | Seasonal, event-related or unknown judgment | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
| 8 | Direction and revision conditions | Use the supplied source, calculation, or explicit unknown |
Verification cases
MK-093-A1 | Revenue halves and operating days halve
Expected: Revenue per operating day is unchanged; withdraw a seasonal conclusion based only on totals
MK-093-A2 | Only one annual promotion rose
Expected: Identify promotion confounding rather than recurring seasonality
Method sources
Source file: 行銷策略實戰學程Day4-佈局獲利 × 節奏變現 × 轉單收割
Location: Annual
Source basis: extracted from course materials
Source URL: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1dq3xqYVUnWvUCpzZKI91yDDOzvkyG0uHy3EOsOjtItA/edit
English translation of source excerpt:
Why learn to plan an annual schedule
