Circle Of Competence

Q: What does the Circle Of Competence AI skill do?

用户在做决策时不确定自己是否真的理解某个领域，或准备进入一个看似熟悉但缺乏验证记录的领域时。 语言信号："我觉得我懂这个行业"/"这个看起来很简单"/"别人都在投这个"/"我来研究一下这个新领域" 不适用于：纯信息查询、日常琐事选择、用户已有充分专业知识的领域。

Community

kangarooking

circle-of-competence

用户在做决策时不确定自己是否真的理解某个领域，或准备进入一个看似熟悉但缺乏验证记录的领域时。语言信号："我觉得我懂这个行业"/"这个看起来很简单"/"别人都在投这个"/"我来研究一下这个新领域" 不适用于：纯信息查询、日常琐事选择、用户已有充分专业知识的领域。

Overview

Publisher	kangarooking
Repository	`buffett-letters-skill`
Skill name	`circle-of-competence`
Stars	109
Forks	20
Bundled files	1
License	MIT
Links	Skill source Repository

Markdown instructions
A SKILL.md file the model loads on demand, so it only costs tokens when a request actually matches.
Works with any LLM
AI skills are plain Markdown, not provider-specific code, so this works with GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model.
1 bundled files
Scripts, templates, and references the model can read while it works. Files are read-only and never executed.
Open source
Published by kangarooking on GitHub. Read the source before you install it.

Installation

Install the Circle Of Competence AI skill in TypingMind to use it with any LLM, or drop it into another agent that reads SKILL.md.

Install in TypingMind

TypingMind installs a skill straight from its GitHub folder — it reads SKILL.md, bundles the resource files, and stores the result locally.

Open the app and go to Plugins → Skills.
Choose "Install from GitHub".
Paste the skill folder URL below and confirm.
https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill/tree/main/circle-of-competence
Enable the skill in any chat where you want it available.

Plugins → Skills → Add skill → From GitHub URL, then paste the folder URL and press Continue.

Install in another agent

Any agent that reads the Agent Skills format can use this skill — copy the folder into that agent's skills directory.

Claude Code — .claude/skills

git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill.git /tmp/buffett-letters-skill
mkdir -p .claude/skills
cp -r /tmp/buffett-letters-skill/circle-of-competence .claude/skills/circle-of-competence

Restart Claude Code after copying so it picks up the new skill.

Use it in TypingMind

Enable Circle Of Competence in any TypingMind chat and the model takes it from there. Its name and description sit in the system prompt, and the moment a request matches, the model loads the full instructions itself — you never invoke it by hand, and it costs no tokens until it is actually used.

The model loads Circle Of Competence on its own as soon as a request matches it.

Works with any AI model

AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so Circle Of Competence is not tied to the model it was written for. Install it once in TypingMind and use it with GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama, or a local model you run yourself — all on your own API keys.

Loaded only when it is needed
The system prompt carries just the name and description. The instructions are fetched on the first matching request, so an idle skill costs nothing.
Switch models mid-chat
Because the skill is instructions rather than code, changing model does not break it — the next model reads the same SKILL.md.

Skill instructions

This is the SKILL.md content the model loads. Read it before installing — a skill is instructions your model will follow.

能力圈判断

R — 原文 (Reading)

"If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. Predicting the long-term economics of companies that operate in fast-changing industries is simply far beyond our perimeter."

— Warren Buffett, 1999年信

I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)

能力圈是一个关于自我认知的决策框架。核心逻辑：

每个人都有一个"能力圈"——你能在其中做出比市场更准确判断的领域
能力圈的大小不重要，重要的是知道边界在哪
能力圈由"历史判断准确率"定义，而非"熟悉程度"或"自信程度"
在圈内犯错只是普通错误；在圈外犯错可能是灾难性的
能力圈可以扩展，但只能通过长期积累而非突然突破

关键区分：熟悉 ≠ 能做准确判断。你可以在某个行业工作20年但仍然无法预测其经济走势。

A1 — 书中的应用 (Past Application)

案例1: 科技行业的回避

问题: 1990s科技股暴涨，是否应该投资？
方法论的使用: 巴菲特承认科技行业的长期经济前景"完全超出了我们的能力圈边界"
结论: 不投资，即使这意味着错过短期巨大收益
结果: 成功避开了2000年互联网泡沫的崩盘

案例2: 可口可乐的投资

问题: 如何判断一个投资是否在能力圈内？
方法论的使用: 可口可乐的商业模式——卖糖水——是巴菲特能理解和预测的
结论: 大量投资$13亿
结果: 28年后价值$250亿，年股息$7亿

A2 — 触发场景 (Future Trigger) ★

用户会在什么情境下需要这个 skill?

准备投资或进入一个"看起来很熟悉"的领域
在某个领域有几次成功经历后想扩大范围
别人都在谈论某个热门领域，产生了FOMO
需要评估自己是否真的"懂"某个行业/公司/技术
面对一个"看似简单"的商业机会

语言信号

"我觉得我理解这个行业"
"这个商业模式看起来很简单"
"大家都在投这个领域"
"我研究了一周，感觉已经看懂了"
"凭我在X领域的经验，Y应该也差不多"

与相邻 skill 的区分

与 margin-of-safety 的区别：安全边际问的是"价格够不够低"，能力圈问的是"我能不能判断价值"
与 real-conservatism 的区别：保守≠传统是关于不盲从，能力圈是关于不越界

E — 可执行步骤 (Execution)

列出历史判断记录
- 完成标准：写出了过去5-10年在该领域的判断及其结果（对/错/不确定）
检验准确率是否超过随机水平
- 完成标准：用具体数据证明你在该领域的判断准确率确实高于"抛硬币"
- 判停条件：如果无法证明准确率高于随机 → 回答"这在我的能力圈之外"，停止
识别边界信号
- 完成标准：列出了3个"我可能已经越界"的预警信号（如：需要用术语解释而非自己的话；无法简单描述商业模式；说不清竞争对手的优势来源）
做出决策
- 完成标准：明确回答"在圈内"或"在圈外"，并给出具体理由

B — 边界 (Boundary)

不要在以下情况使用此 skill

当你已经拥有经过验证的专业知识时（过度谦虚也是一种错误）
当决策的时间窗口极短且不需要深度分析时

作者在书中警告的失败模式

把"熟悉"等同于"理解"——在一个行业工作不代表能判断其经济前景
把"自信"等同于"能力"——自信感是最不可靠的能力圈指标
能力圈不扩展却以为在扩展——真正的扩展需要多年的学习和小规模测试

作者的盲点 / 时代局限

巴菲特用能力圈避开了科技行业，但也因此错过了亚马逊和谷歌——能力圈可能成为不学习的借口
"快速变化的行业"不等于"不可预测"——巴菲特的判断可能反映了代际认知局限而非行业本质
后期通过Apple投资弥补，说明能力圈确实可以扩展，但代价是不小的机会成本

容易混淆的邻近方法论

不是"风险厌恶"——你可以在能力圈内承担巨大的集中风险
不是"不学习新东西"——巴菲特本人也在不断学习新行业（如后来的Apple）

审计信息

验证通过: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
测试通过率: 待阶段 4 验证
蒸馏时间: 2026-04-16

Bundled files

The model reads these on demand while the skill is loaded. They are exposed as readable files and are never executed.

test-prompts.json2 KB

Frequently asked questions

What does the Circle Of Competence AI skill do?

Why use Circle Of Competence on TypingMind?

Because you install it once and use it with any model. Circle Of Competence is plain Markdown rather than provider-specific code, so the same skill runs on GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model — and you can switch model mid-chat without it breaking. TypingMind runs on your own API keys, so you pay providers directly instead of a per-seat subscription, and your skills and chats stay in your own storage.

How do I install Circle Of Competence in TypingMind?

Open Plugins → Skills → Install from GitHub in TypingMind and paste https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill/tree/main/circle-of-competence. TypingMind reads its SKILL.md and bundles its files and installs it as a skill you can enable per chat.

Which AI models can use Circle Of Competence?

Any model you connect in TypingMind. AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and local models can all load this skill when a request matches it.

How many AI models can I use with Circle Of Competence?

As many as you like. As long as a model supports skills, you can use Circle Of Competence with it — GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and more — all on TypingMind with your own API keys.

Is the Circle Of Competence AI skill free?

Yes. It is published on GitHub by kangarooking under the MIT license. You only pay your own AI provider for the tokens you use.

What are AI skills?

An AI skill is a reusable instruction bundle that teaches an AI model how to do one specific task. It follows the open Agent Skills format: a SKILL.md file with a name and description, plus any scripts, templates or reference files the model may need. The model reads the instructions only when your request matches the skill, so an installed skill costs nothing until it is used.

How are AI skills different from plugins or MCP servers?

A plugin or MCP server gives a model new tools to call — code that runs somewhere and returns a result. An AI skill gives the model knowledge and process instead: how to approach a task, which steps to follow, what good output looks like. Skills are plain Markdown, so they need no server, no API key and no runtime, and they work with any model.

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Circle Of Competence

Overview