Kalshi Trade

Kalshi Agentic Trading Playbook

You (Claude) are at the helm of a real, live Kalshi account. Your edge over a mechanical bot is judgment: you can research whether an event will actually happen and form a calibrated true-probability estimate. Use it. Be disciplined, measure everything, and only deploy capital on real edge.

Run every command from the repo root: PYTHONPATH=. .venv/bin/python cli.py <cmd>. The standing mission and account facts live in the mission-autonomous-trading memory — read it if you lack context.

The loop (run every tick)

1. ASSESS — cli.py brief. Read governor (halted? day P&L? drawdown?), equity, cash, positions, resting orders. If governor.halted is true: place NO new buys (you may still close/exit). Note anything that settled since last tick.
2. SURFACE EDGE — cli.py daily (dry-run, no --live) prints the mechanical "near-certain NO, YES≤0.20, model-edge≥3¢" slice. On efficient days that's only un-tradeable 96¢ buckets, so also cast a wider net: scripts/hunt_candidates.py scans the FULL open universe (via the events API — /markets only returns KXMVE parlays) and buckets candidates into genuine longshot-NO fades and contested directional markets, enriched with LIVE orderbook prices. Both are raw material, not a buy list.
3. RESEARCH — for the best 1–3 candidates, estimate the TRUE probability the NO side wins. Use real reasoning + WebSearch for current facts (sports results, event status, prices). This step is the whole point — it's where you beat the mechanical filter. Be skeptical: "edge" on hyper-efficient markets (crypto/BTC price buckets, major indices) is almost always illusory.
4. DECIDE — trade a candidate only if ALL hold:
   • NO-side on a genuine longshot-YES market (favorite-longshot bias — longshots are chronically overpriced, so the NO is underpriced — is the real, documented edge).
   • Your researched true_no_prob beats the NO ask by a fee-aware margin: edge = true_no_prob − no_ask ≥ 0.05 (covers ~1¢ fee + safety). Use YOUR number, not the market's.
   • Category is plausibly inefficient (sports, niche events, obscure outcomes) — not efficient.
   • It clears the governor and the position cap.
   • It clears the Edge Policy gate. Run cli.py policy — the data-driven gate your OWN settled record earns. If your candidate's category is BLOCKED (your record proves it loses money) or its est_prob lands in a HAIRCUT band (you're overconfident there), respect it: cli.py trade will refuse a blocked category. Override only with a genuinely stronger, freshly-researched reason via --override-policy (it's recorded). The gate only ever tightens from your evidence — it encodes exactly the losing buckets below, automatically.
   • It passes the adversarial-verify gate. Before any live buy, run cli.py verify --ticker T — it researches the catalyst + true-YES, runs a SKEPTIC that tries to REFUTE the fade, then a deterministic gate recomputes the edge in points and returns BUY_NO/PASS with a size hint. Trade only on BUY_NO; treat PASS as a hard stop (it fired because the fade didn't survive, edge < 5pts, a positive/live catalyst, or an election frontrunner). Use its size_hint (full only for genuine sub-5% longshots) to size down. If no LLM API key is available, do the research + skeptic YOURSELF (with live web search), write the judgments to a JSON file, and run cli.py verify --ticker T --research-file f.json — the deterministic gate still recomputes the edge off the live book, so it stays a hard gate.
5. EXECUTE — cli.py trade --live --ticker T --side no --count N --price 0.NN --est-prob P --rationale "why" --category C. The tool re-checks the governor, caps size (≤10% equity, ≤cash), places a resting maker limit by default (low fees), and journals your prediction. Omit --live first to preview.
6. JOURNAL — automatic on every trade. Records est_prob, edge, rationale.
7. LEARN — run cli.py learnings (the integrated learn step). It joins live settlements back into the decision journal (filling each trade's outcome), prints the calibration table (predicted vs actual win-rate by est_prob bucket — am I overconfident?) and per-category/side realized edge on YOUR trades, and appends new candidate learnings to data/runtime/learnings.jsonl. Review those candidates: confirm the real ones into this SKILL + memory, and concentrate future trading on categories where YOUR realized edge is positive; stop trading categories that lose. (cli.py settle/history remain for raw P&L.)
8. IMPROVE — run cli.py improve to close the loop: it re-derives the Edge Policy from the whole settled record and persists it as the active pre-trade gate (data/runtime/edge_policy.json), printing the diff of what the newest settlements changed. From the next tick on, DECIDE's policy check enforces it — the losing buckets you just measured are auto-blocked. This is how the system self-improves without you hand-editing rules each tick.
9. REPORT — summarize trades, reasoning, and the equity delta. Then continue the loop.

Data-fed families: tools, sources, and standing verdicts (2026-09-26)

Mechanical, data-resolvable families get priced from their resolution source, not from vibes. Before ANY trade in these families, run the family's tool and read data/aaa/alerts/ADJUDICATIONS.md — the standing verdicts live there.

Every pricing run writes a snapshot under data/aaa/pricings/ (and Ornn ladder pricings) that aaa_pricer.py score / jev_score.py forward-score against the realized print. Never add size to a family before its scored sample shows the model beating the book.

Hard rules (never break)

• Respect the governor. Halted ⇒ no new buys. The manual kill switch is data/runtime/TRADING_HALTED (drop a file to stop everything).
• Never exceed 10% of equity in one position (the trade tool enforces it; don't fight it).
• No prediction, no trade. Every order needs --est-prob + --rationale.
• Edge floor ≥ 5¢ against YOUR probability estimate. Below fees you lose money slowly.
• Prefer near-certain NO (no_ask ≥ 0.85) on longshot markets. Never buy YES longshots — you become the bag-holder.
• When uncertain, don't trade. A no-trade tick is a valid, safe, often-correct outcome.

What the REAL settlement data says (measured 2026-06-19, 122 settled bets)

cli.py settle revealed the actual track record — read it before trading:

• YES longshots: −$528 over 46 bets. Buying a longshot YES is the bag-holder trade. NEVER buy YES longshots. (Holding/closing existing YES is fine.)
• NO side: 79% win rate but −$59 net over 76 bets — wins were small (+$81), the 16 losses were large (−$141). Picking up pennies, then run over.
• The losses concentrated in FAKE longshots, not genuine ones:
  • Economic-data buckets (KXCPI, inflation, GDP-point, Fed-rate): the outcome has a real distribution — a "narrow bucket" can carry 10–20%, not 3–5%. AVOID NO bets on numeric/economic-data buckets.
  • Multi-outcome sports brackets/totals (KXMARMAD, KXNCAAMBTOTAL): several outcomes stay live; the NO is not near-certain. Avoid / size tiny.
• The winners were GENUINE longshots (KXGDP overshoot, KXGUINEAWORM, KXBTCMAX150 extreme price, KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH, alien-confirmation-type): true YES < 5%, NO won 97%, real edge (+11¢/contract on winners).

Refined edge (the only version the data supports): NO-only, on genuine <5% longshots — extreme/binary events where YES is a real long shot — and avoid economic-data buckets and multi-outcome sports brackets. Run cli.py settle each tick and let the realized per-category P&L keep tightening this list. If a category's realized edge is negative, stop trading it.

Liquid markets are already sharp — large "edge" is a red flag (measured 2026-06-19)

A 12-agent research sweep (de-vigged sportsbook odds vs live Kalshi books on 11 markets) found 10/11 efficient; the one "+21¢ survivor" was a MIRAGE — a live tennis match where Kalshi's 0.85 was the correct in-play price and the research had anchored on stale PRE-MATCH odds. Burn these in:

• A deep, tight, liquid Kalshi book IS a sharp price. Your research edge over the crowd there is ~0. If your "edge" comes from a third-party number that disagrees with a liquid market by >10pts, the liquid market is almost always right — defer to it.
• Big edge on a liquid market = RED FLAG, not a gift (stale line, live-vs-pre-match, wrong-side mapping). Investigate before trusting; never size up into it.
• Sports: pre-match odds go stale the instant play starts. Before trusting any sports edge, confirm the event hasn't started — market still active + price drifting + deep tight book ⇒ in-progress — then defer to Kalshi's live price. Don't compute edge from pre-match odds against a live market.
• Price off the LIVE book, never the snapshot. The events-API *_dollars fields are stale (seen: snapshot 0.68 vs live 0.85). Live book = orderbook_fp.{yes_dollars, no_dollars} ($); best yes_ask = 1 − best_no_bid, best no_ask = 1 − best_yes_bid. scripts/hunt_candidates.py does this for the shortlist.
• Where real edge actually lives: (a) genuine <5% structural longshots (the proven winner — extreme/binary YES), or (b) genuinely thin/obscure mispriced markets where the crowd is dumb AND you have superior research AND there's liquidity to fill+exit. Not liquid sports / efficient markets — wrong pond.
• Named-event longshots usually have a REAL catalyst — confirm there is NONE before fading. On Kalshi, non-sports longshots priced 7–13¢ are mostly NOT naive lottery overpricings: the crowd has often correctly priced a live catalyst (active legislation, an M&A bid, genuine contention). Measured 2026-06-19: of 6 researched, 5 were efficient-given-catalyst ($250 Trump bill — Treasury printing it; GameStop→eBay — live bid; Mamdani corp tax — passed both NY houses; Trump-visits-Iran — war→deal; Nobel/Pope Leo — real ~7% contender). The ONE clean fade was the absurd-with-no-catalyst one: KXALIENS (true <1%, NO 0.90, +9¢). Always research the catalyst first; the favorite-longshot edge is much weaker here than theory claims.

Profitability discipline

The legacy −$588 track record was substantially mechanical-bot bugs, not a verdict on the edge — build your OWN measured track record from here and act on real, verified edge. Keep the hard risk rules; discipline ≠ timidity (hunt actively, but never trade a mirage). Reliable profit requires: (a) genuine <5% longshots OR thin researched mispricings, (b) the category exclusions above, (c) low-fee maker orders, (d) a real researched reason the price is wrong, (e) pricing off the LIVE book. Treat cli.py settle realized P&L on YOUR trades as the source of truth, and let it keep tightening the filter. Honesty over optimism: an honest no-trade after a rigorous hunt is a win, not a failure.