Polymarket DCA Eval Trader
Three-tranche Polymarket DCA template for a single selected thesis. It is modeled as a Bubbles/Roya-style staged averaging framework, not as a guarantee of passing any evaluation.
Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting funds.
Safety Rails
- Paper mode is the default. Real orders require
--live. - Exactly 3 tranches are supported. This is intentional so sizing and risk checks stay inspectable.
- Per-market and daily exposure caps are enforced before any live order.
- SDK preflight runs before live trading.
- Every journaled event includes
source=sdk:polymarket-dca-eval-trader. - SDK risk monitors are attached only when market duration supports them. Short markets may resolve before monitor cadence can act.
- Defaults are configurable, not a pass guarantee.
- No claim is made that this passes Propr or any prop challenge. Partnership or marketing claims remain blocked on a separate Adrian decision.
Strategy Shape
The skill enters one thesis through exactly three averaging levels:
| Tranche | Default trigger | Default weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0% price displacement or 0h elapsed | 34% |
| 2 | 2.5% adverse price displacement or 24h elapsed | 33% |
| 3 | 5.0% adverse price displacement or 48h elapsed | 33% |
Schedule format:
bashSIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TRANCHE_SCHEDULE="0:0:0.34,2.5:24:0.33,5:48:0.33"
Each entry is:
textdisplacement_pct:elapsed_hours:size_weight
A tranche is eligible when either its adverse price displacement or elapsed-time trigger fires.
Default SL/TP
The default stop-loss and take-profit thresholds follow the requested Roya/Bubbles reference shape:
| Knob | Default |
|---|---|
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STOP_LOSS_PCT | 2.5 |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TAKE_PROFIT_PCT | 4.5 |
The thresholds are calculated from weighted average selected-token entry price. They are configurable defaults, not evidence that the strategy is profitable.
Eval Envelope
Before a live order, the skill reports whether the executable tranche size would remain inside:
| Constraint | Default |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Static drawdown | 6% |
| Daily drawdown | 3% |
The envelope assumes a full loss on the proposed executable tranche. Passing the envelope only means the proposed size fits those constraints. It does not predict trade outcome, skill profitability, or prop challenge approval.
Quick Start
bash# Paper plan only python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55 # Paper plan with current price and elapsed time python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55 --current-price 0.52 --elapsed-hours 25 # Live trading after reviewing the JSON plan python dca_eval_trader.py --market MARKET_ID --side yes --anchor-price 0.55 --current-price 0.52 --elapsed-hours 25 --live
Configuration
| Env var | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TOTAL_BUDGET | 30 | Total intended cost across all 3 tranches |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_PER_MARKET_CAP | 50 | Max exposure on one market |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_DAILY_CAP | 100 | Max new exposure per UTC day |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TRANCHE_SCHEDULE | 0:0:0.34,2.5:24:0.33,5:48:0.33 | Three tranche rules |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STOP_LOSS_PCT | 2.5 | Stop-loss percent from average entry |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TAKE_PROFIT_PCT | 4.5 | Take-profit percent from average entry |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_ACCOUNT_SIZE | 10000 | Eval-envelope account size |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_TARGET_PCT | 10 | Profit target percentage |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_STATIC_DRAWDOWN_PCT | 6 | Static drawdown percentage |
SIMMER_DCA_EVAL_DAILY_DRAWDOWN_PCT | 3 | Daily drawdown percentage |
Journal
Default journal path:
text~/.simmer/polymarket-dca-eval-trader/journal.jsonl
The journal records paper plans and live trades so repeated runs can enforce daily cap usage.
When Not To Use
Do not use this skill for:
- Multi-market baskets.
- Martingale sizing.
- Fast markets where monitors cannot act before resolution unless the position is sized as if no exit automation exists.
- Any public claim that this passes a prop-firm challenge.
