Threat Actor Profiling

Threat Actor Profiling Skill

Generate structured, actionable threat actor profiles following a deliverable-first methodology grounded in the 5W1H framework and the Diamond Model of Intrusion Analysis.

When to Use

• User asks to profile or research a threat actor / APT group
• User needs to produce an intelligence deliverable about an adversary
• User wants to structure existing threat data into a TA profile
• User is responding to an RFI or incident involving a known threat actor
• User wants to assess capability, intent, or victimology of a group

Core Workflow

Follow these six steps in order. Each step builds toward a complete profile.

Step 1: Define Scope and Purpose

Before collecting any data, clarify:

1. Profile type: Is this for continuous internal tracking or an incident-driven analytical deliverable?
2. Audience: Who will consume this? (CTI team, SOC, IR, executives, legal, comms)
3. Trigger: Is this RFI-driven, incident-driven, or proactive tracking?

Use this decision matrix:

Step 2: Collect Data Sources

Gather from two categories:

Internal telemetry (if incident-related):

• SIEM logs
• EDR/XDR alerts
• IAM / Active Directory events
• NDR and NetFlow data
• Cloud control plane and SaaS logs
• Honeypot data
• Vulnerability management systems

External intelligence:

• TIPs (OpenCTI, ThreatConnect, CrowdStrike Falcon, etc.)
• Content aggregators (Recorded Future, Feedly, Inoreader)
• OSINT tools (VirusTotal, urlscan.io, any.run, Shodan, Censys, abuse.ch)
• Sharing communities (ISACs, FIRST, bilateral partners)

Evaluate source quality using the Admiralty Code:

• Source Reliability: A (completely reliable) through F (cannot be judged)
• Information Credibility: 1 (confirmed) through 6 (cannot be judged)

Assign a letter-number pair to each source (e.g., B2 = usually reliable, probably true).

Step 3: Apply 5W1H and the Diamond Model

Structure the profile using these sections:

3a. Identity and Attribution (WHO)

• Group name and aliases: Primary name, community aliases, sub-groups, known rebrands. Use a single internal identifier.
• Type of actor: Cybercrime, state-sponsored, hacktivist, ransomware affiliate, etc.

3b. Motive and Objective (WHY)

• Motive: Financial gain, political/ideological, thrill-seeking
• Objective: Data theft, disruption, unauthorized access, espionage, extortion

3c. Victimology (WHO is targeted)

• Sector and industry mapping: Use NACE or NAICS codes if formal classification is needed
• Geographic targeting: Regions, nations, geopolitical alignment
• Technology stack profiling: Targeted software, unpatched systems, specific platforms
• Intent toward your organization: Direct, Competitors, Industry, Opportunistic

3d. Capability Assessment (HOW capable)

Use a three-level scale:

Optionally use five levels (High, Medium-High, Moderate, Medium-Low, Low) for more granular assessment.

3e. Modus Operandi (HOW they operate)

• Known campaigns: High-level description of major operations
• Key TTPs mapped to MITRE ATT&CK:
  • Initial access vectors
  • Lateral movement methods
  • Post-exploitation behaviors
  • Data exfiltration methods
• Common tools and malware families
• Operational infrastructure: Hosting patterns, preferred providers, regions
• Extortion and negotiation tactics (if applicable): Leak sites, communication style, ransom range, flexibility

3f. Activity Timeline (WHEN)

• Historical timeline: Past campaigns and major events (prioritize those relevant to your org/industry)
• During incident: Living timeline with daily updates, behavior changes, and source references

3g. Technical Evidence (Appendices)

In STIX 2.1 format where possible:

• Atomic indicators: IPs, domains, URLs, email addresses, file hashes, Bitcoin wallets
• Tooling catalog: Malware families with descriptions

Step 4: Provide Analysis (What Next, So What, Now What)

This step is required for analytical deliverables. Skip for internal tracking profiles.

Forecast (What Next?)

• Will they escalate?
• Likely pivot targets?
• Data leak probability?
• Timeframe estimates

Implications (So What?)

• Impact on core business functions
• Operational disruption potential
• Data exposure risk
• Customer impact

Recommendations (Now What?)

• Defensive actions (prioritized)
• Detection priorities
• Playbook updates needed
• Specific steps for IR, SOC, and leadership

Step 5: Document References

Maintain a transparent audit trail:

• Internal cross-references (incident reports, ticket numbers, SIEM references)
• Vendor reports (title, date, permanent link or archive.org snapshot)
• Community contributions (maintain TLP standards)
• Screenshots of ephemeral sources (X posts, Telegram messages)

Step 6: Tailor the Deliverable

Produce the right output for the audience:

Executive summary: Write it last. Use BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) format. Place the most critical findings at the top.

Cut-off date: Always state the date the analysis represents. Intelligence is perishable.

Output Format: Visual Diagram

The primary output of this skill is an interactive visual diagram rendered inline using the Visualizer (show_widget), NOT a lengthy markdown document.

Design Principles

• Use the visualize:read_me tool (module: diagram) before generating, then use visualize:show_widget
• The diagram should be a single-page visual summary of the threat actor profile
• Use a dark theme consistent with threat intelligence tooling (dark background, accent colors for severity)
• The layout should be a structured card-based or panel-based design

Required Visual Sections

The diagram must include these panels/cards arranged in a readable layout:

1. Header bar: Threat actor name, aliases, type, capability level (color-coded badge), cut-off date
2. Diamond Model visualization: Render as a classic diamond (rotated square) with four vertices connected by lines:
   • Top vertex: Adversary (name, type, origin country)
   • Right vertex: Infrastructure (C2 servers, hosting providers, domains)
   • Bottom vertex: Victim (targeted sectors, regions, org proximity)
   • Left vertex: Capability (tooling, malware families, exploit types)
   • Draw solid lines connecting all four vertices to form the diamond shape
   • On each connecting edge, annotate relevant meta-features: timestamps, operational phase, confidence level (Admiralty Code badge)
   • Center of the diamond: display the campaign or event name that ties the vertices together
   • Use a subtle glow or accent border on the diamond to make it stand out from the rest of the dashboard
3. Motive and Objective: Short tags or badges showing motive type and specific objectives
4. Victimology panel: Targeted sectors, regions, and proximity to the user's org (if known)
5. Kill Chain / TTPs panel: Key MITRE ATT&CK techniques grouped by phase (Initial Access, Execution, Persistence, etc.) shown as labeled badges or a mini flow
6. Activity Timeline: Horizontal timeline bar showing major campaigns/events with dates
7. Capability gauge: Visual indicator (High/Moderate/Low) with supporting detail
8. So What / Now What panel (for analytical deliverables only): Key implications and top 3 prioritized recommendations
9. Key IOCs summary (if available): Small table or list of critical indicators
10. Sources and confidence: Admiralty Code ratings shown as letter-number badges

Color Coding

• Capability High: Red (#ef4444)
• Capability Moderate: Orange (#f59e0b)
• Capability Low: Green (#22c55e)
• State-sponsored: Purple badge
• Cybercrime: Red badge
• Hacktivist: Blue badge
• Use CSS variables from the Visualizer design system for all other colors

Sizing

• Target viewport: 900x700 minimum
• Use scrollable sections if content overflows
• Cards should have rounded corners, subtle borders, and clear spacing

Interactivity (optional but encouraged)

• Clickable MITRE ATT&CK technique badges that show descriptions on hover
• Expandable panels for detailed IOC lists
• Timeline hover showing campaign details

Fallback

If the user explicitly asks for markdown, a document, or a file export, fall back to a structured markdown document using this template:

Copy code
# Threat Actor Profile: [NAME]

**Cut-off Date**: [DATE]
**Classification**: [TLP level]
**Profile Type**: [Internal Tracking | Analytical Deliverable]
**Prepared for**: [Audience]

## Executive Summary
## 1. Identity and Attribution
## 2. Motive and Objective
## 3. Victimology
## 4. Capability Assessment
## 5. Modus Operandi
## 6. Activity Timeline
## 7. Forecast, Implications, and Recommendations
## 8. Technical Evidence (Appendix)
## 9. References

Tips

• If the user provides a threat actor name, search the web for recent activity before building the profile
• Cross-reference aliases across naming conventions (e.g., Microsoft, Mandiant, CrowdStrike naming schemes)
• For ransomware groups, always check for leak site activity and negotiation patterns
• When data is sparse, explicitly state gaps and confidence levels rather than guessing
• Use the Admiralty Code ratings in the references section to signal source quality
• Always call visualize:read_me with module diagram before generating the visual output