Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk logo

Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk

Organization
Wind-Alice
avatar-nassim-taleb-risk

使用纳西姆·塔勒布式的尾部风险、利益共担、减法、林迪效应和杠铃策略分析不确定性。用于投资、商业、政策、职业、产品或个人决策中的出局风险、不可逆损失、脆弱性、代理问题、新旧方案比较和资源配置。

Overview

PublisherWind-Alice
RepositoryAliceMarket
Skill nameavatar-nassim-taleb-risk
Stars
135
Forks
18
Bundled files
5
Links
  • Markdown instructions

    A SKILL.md file the model loads on demand, so it only costs tokens when a request actually matches.

  • Works with any LLM

    AI skills are plain Markdown, not provider-specific code, so this works with GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model.

  • 5 bundled files

    Scripts, templates, and references the model can read while it works. Files are read-only and never executed.

  • Open source

    Published by Wind-Alice on GitHub. Read the source before you install it.

Installation

Install the Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk AI skill in TypingMind to use it with any LLM, or drop it into another agent that reads SKILL.md.

1

Install in TypingMind

TypingMind installs a skill straight from its GitHub folder — it reads SKILL.md, bundles the resource files, and stores the result locally.

  1. Open the app and go to Plugins → Skills.
  2. Choose "Install from GitHub".
  3. Paste the skill folder URL below and confirm.
    https://github.com/Wind-Alice/AliceMarket/tree/main/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk
  4. Enable the skill in any chat where you want it available.
Plugins → Skills → Add skill → From GitHub URL, then paste the folder URL and press Continue.
2

Install in another agent

Any agent that reads the Agent Skills format can use this skill — copy the folder into that agent's skills directory.

Claude Code — .claude/skills
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Wind-Alice/AliceMarket.git /tmp/AliceMarket
mkdir -p .claude/skills
cp -r /tmp/AliceMarket/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk .claude/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk
Restart Claude Code after copying so it picks up the new skill.

Use it in TypingMind

Enable Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk in any TypingMind chat and the model takes it from there. Its name and description sit in the system prompt, and the moment a request matches, the model loads the full instructions itself — you never invoke it by hand, and it costs no tokens until it is actually used.

The model loads Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk on its own as soon as a request matches it.

Works with any AI model

AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk is not tied to the model it was written for. Install it once in TypingMind and use it with GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama, or a local model you run yourself — all on your own API keys.

  • Loaded only when it is needed

    The system prompt carries just the name and description. The instructions are fetched on the first matching request, so an idle skill costs nothing.

  • Switch models mid-chat

    Because the skill is instructions rather than code, changing model does not break it — the next model reads the same SKILL.md.

Skill instructions

This is the SKILL.md content the model loads. Read it before installing — a skill is instructions your model will follow.

纳西姆·塔勒布风险框架

优先保护生存与选择权,再讨论平均收益。使用公开思想形成风险分析框架,不模仿或冒充纳西姆·塔勒布本人。

路由模块

根据问题加载相关模块:

  • 检查破产、死亡、信誉损毁或其他不可逆下行:读取 references/tail-risk.md
  • 判断建议者、决策者和受害者是否为同一批人:读取 references/skin-in-the-game.md
  • 系统因功能、规则、干预或依赖过多而变脆弱:读取 references/via-negativa.md
  • 比较新旧思想、制度、习惯和非易腐事物:读取 references/lindy.md
  • 在生存底座与开放上行之间配置资源:读取 references/barbell.md

重大决策通常按“尾部风险 → 利益共担 → 减法 → 林迪 → 杠铃配置”推进。不要把所有问题都强行归类为极端风险。

综合工作流

  1. 定义出局线和不可逆损失,先判断是否存在生存级风险。
  2. 画出上行、下行、触发条件和风险承担者,检查不对称性。
  3. 判断系统更接近有界、稳定分布,还是受网络效应、杠杆与连锁反应支配。
  4. 审计谁获得收益、谁承担损失,以及建议者是否真正暴露于后果。
  5. 寻找可移除的脆弱源、单点依赖和难以回滚的干预。
  6. 对非易腐方案使用时间与淘汰压力作为证据,但不把“古老”自动等同于正确。
  7. 在下行受控后,设计保守底座与小额开放上行,并明确各桶的损失上限。
  8. 给出拒绝、缩小暴露、试验、对冲或参与的结论。

证据纪律

  • 区分尾部风险、普通波动和纯粹未知,不用戏剧性语言代替机制。
  • 林迪效应主要适用于非易腐事物;技术、医学和硬件需要额外证据。
  • 杠铃不是固定比例口诀,比例取决于出局线、流动性和风险相关性。
  • 涉及健康、金融、法律或公共政策时核验最新的一手证据,并标记推断。
  • 不因无法量化就宣称风险必然巨大,也不因历史平稳就宣称风险不存在。

输出协议

优先按以下结构回答:

  1. 风险判词
  2. 出局线与不对称性
  3. 利益共担审计
  4. 应删除的脆弱源
  5. 林迪或历史检验
  6. 杠铃配置与损失上限
  7. 行动结论与待验证信息

句子可以短,结论必须与证据强度相匹配。

Bundled files

The model reads these on demand while the skill is loaded. They are exposed as readable files and are never executed.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk AI skill do?

使用纳西姆·塔勒布式的尾部风险、利益共担、减法、林迪效应和杠铃策略分析不确定性。用于投资、商业、政策、职业、产品或个人决策中的出局风险、不可逆损失、脆弱性、代理问题、新旧方案比较和资源配置。

Why use Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk on TypingMind?

Because you install it once and use it with any model. Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk is plain Markdown rather than provider-specific code, so the same skill runs on GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model — and you can switch model mid-chat without it breaking. TypingMind runs on your own API keys, so you pay providers directly instead of a per-seat subscription, and your skills and chats stay in your own storage.

How do I install Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk in TypingMind?

Open Plugins → Skills → Install from GitHub in TypingMind and paste https://github.com/Wind-Alice/AliceMarket/tree/main/skills/avatar-nassim-taleb-risk. TypingMind reads its SKILL.md and bundles its files and installs it as a skill you can enable per chat.

Which AI models can use Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk?

Any model you connect in TypingMind. AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and local models can all load this skill when a request matches it.

How many AI models can I use with Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk?

As many as you like. As long as a model supports skills, you can use Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk with it — GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and more — all on TypingMind with your own API keys.

Is the Avatar Nassim Taleb Risk AI skill free?

It is published on GitHub by Wind-Alice. Check the repository for licensing terms. You only pay your own AI provider for the tokens you use.

What are AI skills?

An AI skill is a reusable instruction bundle that teaches an AI model how to do one specific task. It follows the open Agent Skills format: a SKILL.md file with a name and description, plus any scripts, templates or reference files the model may need. The model reads the instructions only when your request matches the skill, so an installed skill costs nothing until it is used.

How are AI skills different from plugins or MCP servers?

A plugin or MCP server gives a model new tools to call — code that runs somewhere and returns a result. An AI skill gives the model knowledge and process instead: how to approach a task, which steps to follow, what good output looks like. Skills are plain Markdown, so they need no server, no API key and no runtime, and they work with any model.

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