Pm Constraint Arbitrage

Q: Why use Pm Constraint Arbitrage on TypingMind?

Because you install it once and use it with any model. Pm Constraint Arbitrage is plain Markdown rather than provider-specific code, so the same skill runs on GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model — and you can switch model mid-chat without it breaking. TypingMind runs on your own API keys, so you pay providers directly instead of a per-seat subscription, and your skills and chats stay in your own storage.

Q: How do I install Pm Constraint Arbitrage in TypingMind?

Open Plugins → Skills → Install from GitHub in TypingMind and paste https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/tree/main/.claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage. TypingMind reads its SKILL.md and installs it as a skill you can enable per chat.

Q: Which AI models can use Pm Constraint Arbitrage?

Any model you connect in TypingMind. AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and local models can all load this skill when a request matches it.

Q: How many AI models can I use with Pm Constraint Arbitrage?

As many as you like. As long as a model supports skills, you can use Pm Constraint Arbitrage with it — GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and more — all on TypingMind with your own API keys.

Q: Is the Pm Constraint Arbitrage AI skill free?

Yes. It is published on GitHub by YichengYang-Ethan under the Apache-2.0 license. You only pay your own AI provider for the tokens you use.

Q: What are AI skills?

An AI skill is a reusable instruction bundle that teaches an AI model how to do one specific task. It follows the open Agent Skills format: a SKILL.md file with a name and description, plus any scripts, templates or reference files the model may need. The model reads the instructions only when your request matches the skill, so an installed skill costs nothing until it is used.

Q: How are AI skills different from plugins or MCP servers?

A plugin or MCP server gives a model new tools to call — code that runs somewhere and returns a result. An AI skill gives the model knowledge and process instead: how to approach a task, which steps to follow, what good output looks like. Skills are plain Markdown, so they need no server, no API key and no runtime, and they work with any model.

Community

YichengYang-Ethan

pm-constraint-arbitrage

Check whether prices of related prediction-market contracts violate a probability bound after venue fees, using the oracle3 MCP server or Python API. Paper trading only.

Overview

Publisher	YichengYang-Ethan
Repository	`oracle3-prediction-market-agent`
Skill name	`pm-constraint-arbitrage`
Stars	502
Forks	59
Bundled files	Instructions only
License	Apache-2.0
Links	Skill source Repository Homepage

Markdown instructions
A SKILL.md file the model loads on demand, so it only costs tokens when a request actually matches.
Works with any LLM
AI skills are plain Markdown, not provider-specific code, so this works with GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model.
Self-contained
Everything the model needs lives in the instructions — no extra files to sync.
Open source
Published by YichengYang-Ethan on GitHub. Read the source before you install it.

Installation

Install the Pm Constraint Arbitrage AI skill in TypingMind to use it with any LLM, or drop it into another agent that reads SKILL.md.

Install in TypingMind

TypingMind installs a skill straight from its GitHub folder — it reads SKILL.md, bundles the resource files, and stores the result locally.

Open the app and go to Plugins → Skills.
Choose "Install from GitHub".
Paste the skill folder URL below and confirm.
https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/tree/main/.claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage
Enable the skill in any chat where you want it available.

Store

Installed

Skills

Add skills

Import one or more skills from a public GitHub folder or a local .skill or .zip archive, or SKILL.md file.

From GitHub URLFrom .skill, .zip, or SKILL.md

GitHub repo or folder

https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/tree/main/.claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage

Points to a single skill folder, or any folder that contains multiple skills. Public repos only.

CancelContinue

Plugins → Skills → Add skill → From GitHub URL, then paste the folder URL and press Continue.

Install in another agent

Any agent that reads the Agent Skills format can use this skill — copy the folder into that agent's skills directory.

Claude Code — .claude/skills

git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent.git /tmp/oracle3-prediction-market-agent
mkdir -p .claude/skills
cp -r /tmp/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/.claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage .claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage

Restart Claude Code after copying so it picks up the new skill.

Use it in TypingMind

Enable Pm Constraint Arbitrage in any TypingMind chat and the model takes it from there. Its name and description sit in the system prompt, and the moment a request matches, the model loads the full instructions itself — you never invoke it by hand, and it costs no tokens until it is actually used.

The model loads Pm Constraint Arbitrage on its own as soon as a request matches it.

Works with any AI model

AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so Pm Constraint Arbitrage is not tied to the model it was written for. Install it once in TypingMind and use it with GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama, or a local model you run yourself — all on your own API keys.

Loaded only when it is needed
The system prompt carries just the name and description. The instructions are fetched on the first matching request, so an idle skill costs nothing.
Switch models mid-chat
Because the skill is instructions rather than code, changing model does not break it — the next model reads the same SKILL.md.

Skill instructions

This is the SKILL.md content the model loads. Read it before installing — a skill is instructions your model will follow.

PM Constraint Arbitrage

Use this skill when the user asks whether related markets are mispriced relative to each other, for example "does P(A) exceed P(B) even though A implies B?", or whether a cross-venue price gap survives fees.

Tools

MCP server (pip install oracle3, then run oracle3-mcp):

search_markets, get_quote, get_orderbook to find markets and read executable prices.
check_constraint_live to fetch quotes and fee schedules and evaluate a relation.
check_constraint to evaluate a relation on quotes you supply.
trading_fee to price a single fill under a venue's schedule.
paper_order, paper_portfolio to paper-trade the legs.

Python API: oracle3.arbitrage.check_constraint and oracle3.fees.

Relations

Relation	Bound	Quotes, in order
implication	P(A) <= P(B) when A implies B	A, B
exclusivity	probabilities sum to at most 1	every outcome
complement	P(A) + P(B) = 1	A, B
same_event	P(A) = P(B), one event on two venues	A, B
event_sum	probabilities sum to exactly 1	every outcome

Steps

Find the markets with search_markets and read both markets' resolution rules with get_market.
Decide which relation holds. This is a judgment about the contract wording, not something the tool can verify.
Run check_constraint_live with the relation and the markets in the order above.
Read best.gross_edge_per_contract (edge before fees), best.fees_per_contract and best.net_edge_per_contract.
Only if the net edge is positive and the book is deep enough, paper-trade each leg with paper_order at a limit no worse than the quoted ask.

Hard rules

Never place real orders from this skill; the MCP server cannot, and the CLI live mode is out of scope.
State the relation you assumed and why; a wrong relation turns an "arbitrage" into a directional bet.
Report fees per leg. Kalshi taker fees are 0.07·M·C·P·(1−P); Polymarket taker fees are rate·C·p·(1−p) with a per-market rate; Polymarket makers pay nothing.
The check assumes every leg fills at the quoted price. Say so when the displayed size is smaller than the order.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Pm Constraint Arbitrage AI skill do?

Check whether prices of related prediction-market contracts violate a probability bound after venue fees, using the oracle3 MCP server or Python API. Paper trading only.

Why use Pm Constraint Arbitrage on TypingMind?

Because you install it once and use it with any model. Pm Constraint Arbitrage is plain Markdown rather than provider-specific code, so the same skill runs on GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model — and you can switch model mid-chat without it breaking. TypingMind runs on your own API keys, so you pay providers directly instead of a per-seat subscription, and your skills and chats stay in your own storage.

How do I install Pm Constraint Arbitrage in TypingMind?

Open Plugins → Skills → Install from GitHub in TypingMind and paste https://github.com/YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/tree/main/.claude/skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage. TypingMind reads its SKILL.md and installs it as a skill you can enable per chat.

Which AI models can use Pm Constraint Arbitrage?

Any model you connect in TypingMind. AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and local models can all load this skill when a request matches it.

How many AI models can I use with Pm Constraint Arbitrage?

As many as you like. As long as a model supports skills, you can use Pm Constraint Arbitrage with it — GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and more — all on TypingMind with your own API keys.

Is the Pm Constraint Arbitrage AI skill free?

Yes. It is published on GitHub by YichengYang-Ethan under the Apache-2.0 license. You only pay your own AI provider for the tokens you use.

What are AI skills?

An AI skill is a reusable instruction bundle that teaches an AI model how to do one specific task. It follows the open Agent Skills format: a SKILL.md file with a name and description, plus any scripts, templates or reference files the model may need. The model reads the instructions only when your request matches the skill, so an installed skill costs nothing until it is used.

How are AI skills different from plugins or MCP servers?

A plugin or MCP server gives a model new tools to call — code that runs somewhere and returns a result. An AI skill gives the model knowledge and process instead: how to approach a task, which steps to follow, what good output looks like. Skills are plain Markdown, so they need no server, no API key and no runtime, and they work with any model.

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Overview

Installation

Install in TypingMind

Install in another agent

Use it in TypingMind

Works with any AI model

Skill instructions

PM Constraint Arbitrage

Tools

Relations

Steps

Hard rules

Frequently asked questions

Related AI Skills

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