Assumption Stress Test

assumption-stress-test

Purpose

Expose load-bearing assumptions, classify their vulnerability, perturb them, and re-check causal validity.

Input contract

yamlCopy code
required: [claim_or_model, assumptions]
optional: [evidence, causal_graph, perturbation_bounds]
constraints: [each assumption must be traceable to a claim or causal link]

Execution protocol

Do not perform called SOP operations inline; each loaded SOP owns its contract and thresholds.

1. You MUST load skill surface-assumptions to surface load-bearing assumptions.
2. You MUST load skill classify-assumption-vulnerability to classify their vulnerability.
3. You MUST load skill challenge-assumption to challenge each material assumption.
4. You MUST load skill apply-perturbation to apply bounded perturbations.
5. You MUST load skill validate-causal-link to re-check affected causal links. If the surviving result requires broader model and scaling variants, consider robustness-analysis as the next tactic. Deviation: omit perturbation only when the assumption is purely definitional; still record and classify it.

Output contract

yamlCopy code
produces: [assumption_register, vulnerability_map, perturbation_results, causal_recheck]
delta_fields: [findings, assumption_updates, uncertainties, decisions, open_questions]

Thresholds and quality gates

• B: all load-bearing assumptions are classified; every challenged assumption has a perturbation or explicit non-perturbability reason; causal links are rechecked.

Failure and counterexamples

Do not call a model robust when an untested high-vulnerability assumption carries the conclusion or when perturbation bounds are unstated.

Provenance map

• assumption-audit, assumption-stress-test, assumption-criticality, assumption-perturbation: resolved/concept according to exact v3 lookup; no near-name substitution.
• Status: assumption-audit, assumption-stress-test, assumption-criticality resolved; assumption-perturbation concept (only package-prefixed variants found).

Preserved source criteria ledger

• Preserve assumption surfacing, vulnerability classification, perturbation, and causal-link validation.

Context checkpoint / Delta notes

Append changed assumptions, perturbation deltas, causal failures, and unresolved questions.