calibrate-adversarial-confidence
Purpose
Track confidence in competing claims or roles across adversarial rounds and update only when evidence or argument quality warrants it.
Input contract
yamlrequired: [round_records, competing_claims, update_rule] optional: [prior_confidence, calibration_history] constraints: [every update cites evidence or argument-quality change]
Procedure
- Record each round's claims, arguments, and evidence.
- Apply the declared update rule and preserve dissent.
- Mark escalation, continuation, termination, or saturation with rationale.
Output contract
yamlproduces: [confidence_trace, update_rationale, round_status, unresolved_dissent] delta_fields: [findings, evidence_updates, uncertainties, decisions]
Quality gates
- A-class calibration: declared universe = all completed debate rounds; numerator = rounds with evidence-linked updates; batch increment = one round; stopping reason = confidence stabilizes or unresolved dissent is explicit; source references = round/evidence IDs; direction/threshold reason = update only toward claims supported by new evidence or stronger argument.
Failure and counterexamples
Do not update confidence for rhetoric, repetition, or role status alone.
Provenance map
- resolved: adversarial-escalation
- concept: confidence-escalation [sop]
- resolved: confidence-calibration


