construct-scenario
Purpose
Construct scenarios across key uncertainties with explicit assumptions and plausibility, including baseline, counterfactual, and extreme-but-plausible modes.
Input contract
yamlrequired: [context, uncertainty_set, scenario_mode] optional: [drivers, dependency_model, probability_method, recovery_assumptions] constraints: [scenario assumptions and distinguishing observables must be explicit]
Procedure
- Select uncertainty axes and record their state space.
- Generate distinct combinations appropriate to the mode.
- Propagate interactions, breaking points, failure cascades, and recovery assumptions where applicable.
- Attach plausibility rationale, distinguishing observables, and outcome implications.
Output contract
yamlproduces: [scenario_set, assumptions, plausibility_rationales, observables, outcome_implications] delta_fields: [findings, hypothesis_updates, uncertainties, open_questions]
Quality gates
- At least 3 scenarios span different combinations of key uncertainties.
- Scenarios are internally consistent and materially distinct.
- Worst-case mode includes breaking point, cascade, recovery, and observables.
Parameterization
Caller supplies context schema, uncertainty axes, mode, distinctness rule, plausibility/probability method, and worst-case fields.
Failure and counterexamples
Reject decorative narratives that do not vary an uncertainty or expose a testable implication.
Provenance map
- resolved: scenario-construction
- resolved: counterfactual-scenario-construction
- resolved: worst-case-construction
- resolved: stress-scenario
Preserved source criteria ledger
| source | criterion |
|---|---|
| scenario-construction | Output contains at least 3 distinct scenarios spanning different combinations of key uncertainties. |
| scenario-construction | Each scenario includes a narrative, key assumptions, and probability estimate. |
| worst-case-construction | Extreme-but-plausible mode includes breaking points, failure cascades, and recovery assessment. |


