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Next Round Baotuan

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huangrichao2020
next-round-baotuan

A股 6 轮机构抱团规律研究 + 下一轮抱团时点/方向预测 + AI 抱团瓦解预警(5 维度监控)。基于麓山观澜/雪球老六/招商证券/中信建投 22 个权威源验证。建立"宏观+产业+政策"三者共振铁律 + 估值/市值风格切换矩阵 + 资金溢出效应 6 大逻辑。每日扫描 5 项预警指标,给出仓位调整建议(5项任意1→减30%,2→减50%,3→清仓)。

Overview

Publisherhuangrichao2020
Repositorypretty-skills
Skill namenext-round-baotuan
Stars
54
Forks
4
Bundled files
4
LicenseMIT
Links
  • Markdown instructions

    A SKILL.md file the model loads on demand, so it only costs tokens when a request actually matches.

  • Works with any LLM

    AI skills are plain Markdown, not provider-specific code, so this works with GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model.

  • 4 bundled files

    Scripts, templates, and references the model can read while it works. Files are read-only and never executed.

  • Open source

    Published by huangrichao2020 on GitHub. Read the source before you install it.

Installation

Install the Next Round Baotuan AI skill in TypingMind to use it with any LLM, or drop it into another agent that reads SKILL.md.

1

Install in TypingMind

TypingMind installs a skill straight from its GitHub folder — it reads SKILL.md, bundles the resource files, and stores the result locally.

  1. Open the app and go to Plugins → Skills.
  2. Choose "Install from GitHub".
  3. Paste the skill folder URL below and confirm.
    https://github.com/huangrichao2020/pretty-skills/tree/main/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84/%E6%8A%B1%E5%9B%A2%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6
  4. Enable the skill in any chat where you want it available.
Plugins → Skills → Add skill → From GitHub URL, then paste the folder URL and press Continue.

Use it in TypingMind

Enable Next Round Baotuan in any TypingMind chat and the model takes it from there. Its name and description sit in the system prompt, and the moment a request matches, the model loads the full instructions itself — you never invoke it by hand, and it costs no tokens until it is actually used.

The model loads Next Round Baotuan on its own as soon as a request matches it.

Works with any AI model

AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so Next Round Baotuan is not tied to the model it was written for. Install it once in TypingMind and use it with GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama, or a local model you run yourself — all on your own API keys.

  • Loaded only when it is needed

    The system prompt carries just the name and description. The instructions are fetched on the first matching request, so an idle skill costs nothing.

  • Switch models mid-chat

    Because the skill is instructions rather than code, changing model does not break it — the next model reads the same SKILL.md.

Skill instructions

This is the SKILL.md content the model loads. Read it before installing — a skill is instructions your model will follow.

下一轮抱团预测 + 抱团瓦解预警

加载这个 skill 后,你就是「抱团周期判断 + AI 抱团瓦解预警 + 提前 6 个月布局新主线」的专家。


一 · 核心框架(4 铁律 + 1 预警)

铁律 1 · 「宏观+产业+政策」三者共振

每轮抱团都同时满足:

  1. 宏观流动性宽松(货币宽松 / 低利率)
  2. 产业大趋势拐点(WTO / 股改 / 4G / 双碳 / AGI)
  3. 政策强催化(双碳 / 制造 2025 / 数字经济)

铁律 2 · 估值风格切换(高→低)

每轮抱团从极高 PE切到低位 PE(消化期 6-18 月)。

  • 2007 金融 PE 100+ → 2013 创业板 PE 130-160 → 2017 漂亮 50 PE 40-60 → 2021 赛道 PE 80-150 → 2024 AI PE 200+

铁律 3 · 市值风格切换

大盘 → 小盘 → 大盘轮动。

  • 2007 金融(大蓝筹)→ 2013 创业板(小盘 TMT)→ 2017 漂亮 50(中大盘)→ 2021 赛道(中盘)→ 2026 AI(中大盘)

铁律 4 · 瓦解后溢出效应

6-12 月内必形成新主线(资金从高位切向低位 + 预期差)。

  • 2021 新能源 → 2022-2023 银行/家电/农业/专精特新

预警体系 · 5 维度监控 AI 抱团瓦解

维度指标危险阈值触发动作
估值寒武纪 PE 10年百分位>80%减 30%
拥挤度AI 板块成交占比>50%减 30%
美债10Y 收益率>5%减 30%
美联储9月 FOMC 加息概率>70%减 30%
A 股浪潮信息/寒武纪 单日<-15%情绪破位警示

5 项任意 1 项触发 → 减 30%;任意 2 项 → 减 50%;任意 3 项 → 清仓 AI。


二 · 6 轮抱团完整数据

#周期主线时长间歇期
12003–04五朵金花(周期)16 月—
22005–07金融地产27 月14 月
32013–15创业板 TMT24 月64 月
42017漂亮 5012 月19 月
52019–22赛道牛市30 月13 月
62024.10–今AI 算力19月+28 月 ≈ 3 年

间歇期规律:近三轮均值 20 月 = 1.7 年;抱团 5→6 = 28 月 = 3 年整(用户观察成立)。


三 · 下一轮抱团预测

启动时点:2027 Q2-Q4

依据:

  1. AI 抱团瓦解 → 资金溢出需要 6-9 月
  2. 新产业从订单兑现到抱团启动需要 12-18 月
  3. 参照 2019 双碳 → 2021 新能源抱团的过渡时长

第一龙头:人形机器人(具身智能) ★★★

  • 2026 万台级放量 → 2027-2028 百万台量产(万亿级市值空间)
  • 特斯拉 Optimus + 国内宇树/智元/汇川同步
  • 核心标的:汇川 300124 / 绿的谐波 688017 / 埃斯顿 002747 / 鸣志电器 603728 / 五洲新春 603667 / 恒立液压 601100

第二龙头:固态电池 / 新能源 2.0 ★★

  • 2028 量产 / 2030 全球渗透率 12.2% / 产值 5000 亿
  • 核心标的:宁德时代 300750 / 赣锋锂业 002460 / 璞泰来 603659 / 容百科技 688005 / 当升科技 300073

第三龙头:商业航天 / 卫星互联网 ★

  • GW/千帆 2 万颗卫星 = 6 万亿市场
  • 核心标的:上海瀚讯 300762 / 七一二 603712 / 中国卫星 600118 / 航天电子 600879 / 振华科技 000733

四 · 操作节奏

当前阶段(2026 Q3-Q4 · AI 抱团瓦解中)

  1. 清仓 AI 高估值龙头(寒武纪 PE 78% / 海光 PE 62%)
  2. 布局机器人/固态电池左侧(15-20% 仓位)
  3. 保留红利防御(银行/电力/煤炭)作为底仓
  4. 不追 AI 假摔反弹(顶部震荡期 3-4 季度)

启动期(2027 Q2)

按「L 突破」模式配置核心 6 只,单只 15-20%

主升期(2027 Q3-Q4)

固态电池接力,配置宁德/赣锋/璞泰来


五 · 数据源

22 个权威信源(按引用频次):

  • 麓山观澜抖音图文(A股六轮抱团行情历史演进逻辑)
  • 雪球老六投资日记 / 金融学长抖音
  • 中信证券 2026 下半年 5 大主题研报
  • 招商证券 张夏团队(抱团-申购正反馈)
  • 中信建投(白酒 vs 新能源抱团对比)
  • 银河期货 / 信达期货 / 中信期货
  • 中信证券《A股六轮极致抱团全复盘》
  • 闫思倩《十五五新质生产力》

六 · 关联 skill

  • idea-trade-qa v0.7.0 · 微信级股市问答(含 10 个场景 + 鱼身定位 + 接盘防御)
  • stock-analysis-v4 · 4 层架构选股
  • 卡脖子猎手 · Serenity 供应链瓶颈方法论
  • 宏观雷达 · A 股每日宏观早报
  • daily-market-review · 每日复盘
  • portfolio-diagnosis · 持仓诊断
  • event-driven-analyzer · 事件驱动分析
  • marginal-tracker · 边际追踪

生成于 2026-09-05 · 小源 agent · huangrichao2020 · MEMORY.md §二十一 沉淀

Bundled files

The model reads these on demand while the skill is loaded. They are exposed as readable files and are never executed.

Frequently asked questions

What does the Next Round Baotuan AI skill do?

A股 6 轮机构抱团规律研究 + 下一轮抱团时点/方向预测 + AI 抱团瓦解预警(5 维度监控)。基于麓山观澜/雪球老六/招商证券/中信建投 22 个权威源验证。建立"宏观+产业+政策"三者共振铁律 + 估值/市值风格切换矩阵 + 资金溢出效应 6 大逻辑。每日扫描 5 项预警指标,给出仓位调整建议(5项任意1→减30%,2→减50%,3→清仓)。

Why use Next Round Baotuan on TypingMind?

Because you install it once and use it with any model. Next Round Baotuan is plain Markdown rather than provider-specific code, so the same skill runs on GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, Grok, or a local model — and you can switch model mid-chat without it breaking. TypingMind runs on your own API keys, so you pay providers directly instead of a per-seat subscription, and your skills and chats stay in your own storage.

How do I install Next Round Baotuan in TypingMind?

Open Plugins → Skills → Install from GitHub in TypingMind and paste https://github.com/huangrichao2020/pretty-skills/tree/main/%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84/%E6%8A%B1%E5%9B%A2%E9%A2%84%E8%AD%A6. TypingMind reads its SKILL.md and bundles its files and installs it as a skill you can enable per chat.

Which AI models can use Next Round Baotuan?

Any model you connect in TypingMind. AI skills are plain Markdown instructions rather than provider-specific code, so GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and local models can all load this skill when a request matches it.

How many AI models can I use with Next Round Baotuan?

As many as you like. As long as a model supports skills, you can use Next Round Baotuan with it — GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and more — all on TypingMind with your own API keys.

Is the Next Round Baotuan AI skill free?

Yes. It is published on GitHub by huangrichao2020 under the MIT license. You only pay your own AI provider for the tokens you use.

What are AI skills?

An AI skill is a reusable instruction bundle that teaches an AI model how to do one specific task. It follows the open Agent Skills format: a SKILL.md file with a name and description, plus any scripts, templates or reference files the model may need. The model reads the instructions only when your request matches the skill, so an installed skill costs nothing until it is used.

How are AI skills different from plugins or MCP servers?

A plugin or MCP server gives a model new tools to call — code that runs somewhere and returns a result. An AI skill gives the model knowledge and process instead: how to approach a task, which steps to follow, what good output looks like. Skills are plain Markdown, so they need no server, no API key and no runtime, and they work with any model.

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